Russia exports to BRICS 2025: Key Trends, Drivers & Outlook
Russia’s Export Surge to BRICS in 2025: Key Trends, Drivers and Outlook
Russia’s export profile in 2025 continues to pivot decisively toward the BRICS economic bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — along with the newer members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. As Western markets remain restricted by sanctions and compliance barriers, BRICS partners have become Russia’s principal growth outlet. The following analysis examines current export data, sector-specific developments, and near-term forecasts shaping this redirection of trade.
1. Re-Weighting of Trade Flows
According to customs data compiled by Russia’s Federal Statistics Service and partner agencies, total trade turnover between Russia and the BRICS + group rose an estimated 6 – 7 percent year-on-year in 2024 — providing the foundation for continued expansion in 2025. BRICS + now accounts for roughly 27 percent of global merchandise exports, compared with about 24 percent five years ago. Within Russia’s external trade, the bloc represents more than one-third of total exports, up from 19 percent in 2018.
The strategic pivot has been reinforced by currency realignment. Bilateral settlements in national currencies — mainly yuan, rupee and dirham — have replaced dollar-denominated transactions in many long-term contracts, reducing exposure to Western payment systems. Analysts expect this structural change to endure regardless of political developments.
2. Energy: The Core of Russian Exports
Energy commodities continue to dominate Russia’s export basket. Despite volatility in pricing, fossil-fuel revenues remain the main source of foreign currency inflows. The independent Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimated that Russian fossil-fuel export revenues averaged €546 million per day in September 2025 — down 4 percent month-on-month but still substantial. [1]
India remains Russia’s largest single buyer of seaborne crude oil, sourcing approximately 34 percent of its total imports from Russian suppliers as of September 2025. [2] Although total Indian crude imports declined 10 percent from 2024 levels, Russia retained its leading share through competitive discounts and flexible delivery terms. China remains another anchor market, absorbing roughly 40 percent of Russian fossil-fuel revenue streams. Energy logistics through the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean pipeline and Arctic shipping corridors continue to expand capacity.
3. Agricultural Exports: From Food Security to Market Strategy
The diversification of Russian exports into agriculture has accelerated sharply. The 2025/26 season is expected to set records for both grain and vegetable-oil shipments. The Agriculture Ministry projects total wheat exports at 43 – 44 million metric tons, solidifying Russia’s position as the world’s leading wheat supplier. [3]
Sunflower-oil exports are forecast near 5 million tons, with India accounting for nearly one-third of purchases. Egypt and Iran are also expanding contracts under bilateral food-security programs. Fisheries and aquaculture are joining the mix: Russian seafood exports to BRICS partners rose 50 percent from 2021 to 2024, valued at roughly US $3.1 billion, according to Tridge Market data.
These flows align with a broader Russian objective — to balance hydrocarbon dependence with high-margin agri-exports backed by ruble- or yuan-denominated financing.
4. Fertilizers and Minerals
Fertilizer exports illustrate Russia’s growing interdependence with emerging markets. The Russian Fertilizer Producers Association aims to raise global market share to 25 percent by 2030, up from about 20 percent today. [4] Nearly half of global fertilizer consumption occurs within BRICS economies — chiefly India and China — making the bloc a natural destination. In 2025, Russian exports of nitrogen and potash fertilizers to India reached record volumes despite logistical and payment challenges.
Metals and mining products follow a similar pattern. Nickel, aluminum, and copper shipments to China and India have partially offset declines in European demand. Russia’s Ural and Siberian mining regions are now oriented toward Asian processing facilities and port expansion projects on the Pacific coast.
5. Bilateral Dynamics Across the Bloc
Brazil and Latin America
Trade between Russia and Brazil reached an estimated US $12.4 billion in 2024 — with Russian exports around US $11 billion — driven by fertilizers, grains and chemical products. [5] The partnership is underpinned by Brazil’s agricultural demand for potash and phosphate inputs. Logistics through Atlantic routes and the Northern Sea corridor may reduce transit time in the future.
India and South Asia
India’s trade volume with Russia expanded more than fivefold between 2021 and 2024. Beyond crude oil, bilateral initiatives include shipbuilding, nuclear fuel supply, and pharmaceutical imports from India into Russia. Analysts expect bilateral settlements in rupees and rubles to stabilize by mid-2026, after initial currency liquidity constraints are resolved.
China
China remains Russia’s largest overall trading partner. However, customs statistics for January – September 2025 show a decline of about 9 percent in total turnover to US $163 billion, reflecting weaker Chinese industrial demand and commodity price adjustments. Despite this, the two countries maintain strategic coordination in energy and infrastructure development, including the Power of Siberia pipeline and joint projects in the Arctic.
New Entrants to BRICS +
Egypt and the UAE are emerging as hubs for Russian grain and energy re-exports. The UAE’s Jebel Ali port has become a transshipment center for Russian commodities destined for Asia and Africa, while Egypt is negotiating expanded wheat and oil supply agreements linked to its domestic food security agenda. Iran and Ethiopia are expected to focus on industrial inputs and energy equipment in bilateral trade plans.
6. Logistics and Financial Corridors
The development of new transport and finance corridors is central to sustaining export growth. The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), connecting Russia to India via Iran and the Caspian Sea, has cut transit time by 30 – 40 percent compared with Suez routes. Meanwhile, Russia and China are testing the digital ruble and cross-border settlement systems based on CIPS to streamline payments. These technical linkages enhance resilience against financial sanctions and support faster customs clearance across BRICS ports.
7. Economic Risks and Moderating Forces
Despite the strong headline numbers, several risks could temper Russia’s export momentum:
- Price volatility and tax exposure: Declining global oil prices and adjusted export duties affect budget revenues.
- Shipping capacity constraints: Weather and security incidents at Black Sea ports (e.g., Novorossiysk) continue to disrupt flows. [6]
- Currency liquidity issues: Limited convertibility between rubles and partner currencies still poses short-term barriers.
- Infrastructure lag: While new corridors exist, port modernization and rail capacity expansion remain unfinished.
Nevertheless, the overall trajectory of Russian trade with BRICS countries remains positive. Structural shifts in supply chains and investment flows are unlikely to reverse, even under conservative growth assumptions.
8. Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
Analysts expect Russia’s exports to BRICS markets to grow by approximately 4 to 6 percent annually over the next two years. The energy segment will remain dominant but with gradual contraction in share as agriculture and chemicals gain ground. By 2026, BRICS importers could account for half of Russia’s non-energy export revenues, compared with around one-third today.
On the macroeconomic front, the ruble’s exchange stability against Asian currencies, together with regional integration projects, will define how sustainable the pivot becomes. In parallel, BRICS cooperation on standards and customs digitization may further simplify trade flows and reduce transaction costs.
Conclusion
Russia’s export realignment toward the BRICS bloc is no longer an emergency response to sanctions but an enduring structural transition. Energy remains the financial engine, while grains, fertilizers, and metals constitute the broadening base of trade. Logistics innovation and financial sovereignty within BRICS are set to define the next phase of growth. For global importers and analysts alike, 2025 marks a turning point in how Russia integrates into the emerging economic order of the Global South.







